Welcome to the Ultimate (half baked) Bitcoin Analysis.

Everything shared on this page is the results of my work on creating a deep statistical and technical analysis on Bitcoin. This series has the following elements:

Note: Why Half Baked? Shortly after I started working on this I was re-diagnosd with cancer. So everything that wasn’t a priority went to the back burner. I still worked on the data and TA side of what you see here. I got the answers I needed to pass on to family and others. Around April 2022 I took a look at everything again and realized there is probably enough value here to share with my trading group and maybe a larger audience. So I decided to put the bare minimum out there that I think would be of value… thus half baked.

There’s not more to add as I let the document and the videos stand on their own.

Ultimate Bitcoin (half baked) Analysis Document (download PDF)

Introduction and Overview

In this video I go over a high level overview of what’s contained on this page. I share why I started this analysis and why I stopped. Also provide an overview of what is found within the document and provide a high level overview of each video you’ll find on this page.

Prelude to Crisis 1 & 2

In this video we set the table for crisis 1 & 2. We talk about the early adopter phase and how that transitions into the first inflection point to the first mass awareness high.

These areas of Bitcoin price action are important because they start to form the highly effective trading model of Bitcoin.

From there we dive into just setting the stage for Crisis #1. I cover how you can project out value channels when you get a high and how using simple patterns you can reliably trade around these key zones.

Example of Successful 3 Crisis (AMZN)

In this video I provide an example of a successful 3 crisis price pattern. The pattern we cover in this video is what I’m expecting with Bitcoin. There are more than enough examples to pick from but here I chose AMZN. Everybody knows it and it provides a near textbook example of a 3 pattern viability crisis.

Example of Unsuccessful 3 Crisis (AKAM)

In this video we outline an unsuccessful 3 crisis pattern using AKAM. This is from a complete chartist perspective. It’s not a call on the viability of this company or if it has further upside potential. This example is a textbook 3 crisis failure pattern. The first thing to note is an all time high is made. From that high we can start to create value channels and expectations. This ticker didn’t live up to the price in expectations.

Crisis #1 – Full Breakdown

Here we dive into crisis #1, the first viability crisis for Bitcoin. In this video I dive into why this is a crisis and we cover the patterns of price action. I get into what levels are important, value channel analysis and how to view the pattern of price action coming out of a crisis of identity. The analysis here is a mix of foundational technical analysis from a pure chartist perspective and mixing in fundamental narratives that was driving the crowd.

Crisis #2 – ReCheck of Viability

Coming off Crisis #1 we dive into Crisis #2. First, I cover a quick recap of crisis #1 and then we do a prelude to Crisis #2. From there it is analyzing the price action of Crisis #2. It’s here where we can create a pattern that helps us prepare for the 3rd Crisis. In this video I outline very clear value channel metrics, price and momentum structure, and key TA elements to watch as we enter the next crisis.

Crisis #3 (members only)

Right now there are 2 videos covering crisis #3 available to members. Those can be found on this 3rd Bitcoin Crisis Execution – members page.

  • Crisis #3 – The Setup, Key Areas, and TA Areas of Buys
  • Crisis #3 – Execution