This page is my running analysis and updates on Bitcoin. The latest update is my view on BTC and driving what is driving my trade decisions.

18 MAY 2022

A new value channel has developed over the last 7 days. BTC is trading within a 12% range or so since it now broke to trade around the 30K area.

One thing of note is the lower level aligns perfectly with the JUN 2021 pivot low. The only real positive you can add on the long side is this level has not had a close below. So it’s held so far.

With this new VC being developed you do have levels and rules you can trade against. BTC is still momentum and bias short.

I anticipate a move upward to the momentum indicators and a failure form there. This chart outlines the key areas to watch for reactions:

09 MAY 2022

We first dive into the daily chart. Of concern there is BTC has now officially closed and traded out the VC it’s been within since JAN 2022. There is the key 30K level below. We then move onto the 4D chart and outline a key level to watch there. On the Weekly we have the Mixed 200 AVG sitting right around 24K– marking it good multi-week move target. A -50% sell off is well within the standard sell off ranges of Bitcoin. I’m preparing for further lows. I also look at the upside and share what to watch on the 60m and 240m charts.

03 MAY 2022

At this point using the 240m is probably key. Watching those levels. As you see in the chart below BTC is nearing the bottom of the long value channel it’s been in. So if it hits that area I’d expect an upside reaction. But the 60m, 240m charts are all bias and momentum short at this point:

May 1st 2022 Update

Quick hits from video:

With the April close we take a quick look at the immediate downside and upside levels of concern on Bitcoin. Still trading within the value channel I’d expect an upside test then failure around our bias indicator the RexDog Average.

From there it’s watching the lower time frames and how they align with momentum and momentum checks.

Downside Levels:

  • Immediate downside range is 35,100 to 37,000
  • 37,000 is an important level because it is the bottom of the VC
  • Next downside levels is 30,000 to 31,800.
  • From there if all those break we might be heading into Bitcoin’s 3rd crisis

Upside Levels

  • 1st 39,025
  • 2nd 40,226
  • 3rd (RDA) – 41,400

The best short entry at this point is between 41,500 and 43,400. Wide range but if BTC impulses up to this area I’d expect a failure. Watching on lower timeframes will reveal. You’d want to see a cascading failure from momentum long to momentum short from 5, 15, 30, and 60.

Before April 2022

Below are both tutorial videos but they cover my thoughts on and BTC price action and future price levels.